Besorgniserregende Zukunft f?r EFA-Studenten und LHG-Piloten

[E92325]

[flapfail]

to be a commercial pilot is the best job ever

But under the present circumstances I would not do it again.....
_________________
**Happy landings**

[Flerq]

[Flerq]

[E92325]

[Laurens0404]

I recently discussed the issue with a friend at Airbus and he said that it will be at least another 70 years before there are fully autonomous aircraft flying (and then only extremely few, as it is extremely expensive to insure). In addition, all existing aircraft would have to be converted and taken out of service... So when the first aircraft comes onto the market in 2028, for example, they will be ordered by the airlines (delivery takes
2-5 years) and they will need new training programs, which must be tested first.

In addition, extremely modern aircraft have been developed in the last 5 years, which can easily fly for 30 years.
Conversion would cost the airlines too much money.

The psychological aspect also plays a role; airlines and passengers have safety concerns about completely pilotless aircraft.

In my opinion, and the opinion of the engineer at Arirbus, autonomous aircraft will not fly for the next 60-80 years, or only in very isolated cases. In addition, 1-cockpit crews require an extremely high safety effort.

You can still become a pilot in our generation without hesitation.

[Flerq]

[Flerq]

[Flerq]

[Laurens0404]

From the Engineer Airbus:

Here are a few facts from the Airbus engineer on the subject. Based on data without sources or exact data. But we should not worry:
1. approval must be granted by EASA, which has not yet been granted. Not even cars or trains can drive autonomously yet, how can airplanes? The influence of labor unions etc. should not be ignored
2. modifications to aircraft: capacities are unimaginable, even the newer models require enormous legal and working time arrangements.
3. at Airbus, all licenses, all supply chains, hangars, personnel, etc. have to be retrained, simply everything that takes an extremely long time. (They are still optimizing the A320, which is 40 Years old) And now we are just at the production stage!
4. how is a new process to be established for each model, experience shows that it takes years to decades...
5. the airplanes are becoming more expensive and require extensive training. On the ground and in the air. Let's assume 22800 registered pilots, if 50% are dropped, there would still be 11400 pilots who have to be retrained and have to hand in new licenses. If you were to retrain the pilots in 24-person classes every 1st week (unlikely), it would take 10 years just to do this.
6. old orders go until 2040. To retire and license these alone... years.
7. society: trust and control are keyfactors.

To summarize: Don't worry, it will take decades before the first planes take off and it will take decades again before they are retrained. And it will take decades again to retire the old ones. All after you retirement.

I think we worry to much, go become a pilot,

[Flerq]

[E92325]

Well, i am working in the automotive industry and self driving regarding autonomous driving is very far away either. There are ambitions and some driving assisstants, which allow partly autonomous driving, but for full autonomous driving. I do not believe in this technology either, among others due to the costs which can be expected for the vehicles, as well as for the infrastructure and also Laurens0404 point 7. society: trust and control are keyfactors.

Regarding to the aviation, he already mentioned the reasons why it wont come to single pilot operation, which i fully agree to. That are sweet dreams of EASA and lobbyists.