Besorgniserregende Zukunft f?r EFA-Studenten und LHG-Piloten

[Flerq]

Note: Post is in english because it applies to all airlines around the world as well. Sorry for my english.

There has been a lot of talk around Airbus and plans to remove pilots from the flightdeck. It started with eMCO for the a350. They also want single pilot operations in the a321F as early as 2030. As much as unions are fighting this, and as much as us pilots think this is crazy and hate the idea, its very likely EASA will certify the a350 for single pilot cruise operations by 2026 (I truly hope they don't). Maybe a321F complete single pilot operations by 2030 is too optimistic (Airbus plans for 2030). Its already being studied and worked toward by EASA and Airbus. Maybe the get it by 2035. 5 years to prove its safe in freigher planes, then it starts coming to the entire a320 neo family in 2040. This is very very possible. Automation is important in aviation, so this isn't hard to accomplish. It's also not very far off at all. 15 years when normal careers are 30 - 40 years long.

Single pilot a320 operations is very very different to the job it is now. No more teamwork which is emphasized from day one of pilot training, you're alone in the cockpit. Job satisfaction will probably decline, loneliness increases. The next generation planes will also likely be single pilot. Airbus has plans to release a new aircraft by 2035.

Everyone starting training soon, or in the near future will probably have to deal with this change. But EFA does not mention this at all.

Think about how much less demand there will be for long haul pilots at LH when they need only two pilots instead of three / four. What will happen in the future? It would be nice to get some sort of information from EFA how airlines will deal with such a change, and what will happen to pilots if this (likely but hopefully not) happens. But we have not heard anything.

Maybe I am thinking too far into the future, but there are lots and lots of people who are working on this software / automation who think this is just some natural progression.

I'm thinking back-up plans are going to be a lot more important. And people should carefully consider going into aviation.

I'd like to hear other thoughts on this issue.

[E92325]

Good morning,

i understand your concerns, but i honestly do not believe, that it will come, like some airlines mention it to come. I think definetly, that from the technical point of view, i will be possible. But i also, that the disadvantages do not make it worth. Why so:

It would be definetly a significant decrease in security, indepentent from what EASA or the airlines say. When the pilot goes for example to the toilet, the autopilot is able to handle the airplane, even today. A TCAS of a modern airplane can make it by itself to avoid a crash. Even if the pilot would leave the cockpit for a short time, there would this decrease in security.

But for example, what would happen, if the pilot gets ill, unconscious or even worse die? In this case, the plane and its systems would not longer be monitored, it would not be under supervision anymore. That would mean, that the airplane, in your example the A321F, would have to operate fully automatically. That would mean, the airplanes also would have to be certified for zero pilots operation. And this kind of operation would have to be certified worldwide, in every contry, they would want to operate this way. I do not tink, that every country, would approve it.

Now you could think "okay, they could operate airplanes with only one pilot on routes through countries, which would allow single pilot operation". But imagine you have an airplane which had to be certified for single pilot operations, or even partwise automonous opertion and again you would have to operate it with two pilots, due to restrictions. It would not make sense. I also think that the people would not travel like they do today, especially, because it would not be cheaper as a developement prozess with testing and validation is extremly expensive. I am convinced of that.

My last piont is, that testing single pilot operations with cargo airplanes is not an opportunity. Sure, if something would happen, the number of people injured, or died would propably be less. But nevertheless, it does not make a difference whether a passenger airplane, or a cargo airplane crashes.

For me it seems like the ambitions, that the goverment had or has with electromobility. Not realistic and the demand would decrease, especially because many people are afraid of flying.

[flapfail]

The main problem is: The AIRLINES themselves force the development of a single pilot cockpit
And EASA more and more is trying to fulfil the wishes of the airlines.
so this will come for sure, and only the pilot associations (especially in the USA but also VC in Europe) is trying to stop that.
But it is possible to do - airplanes can land by themselves just with the push of a button ("Land safe" systems by Garmin also installed in aircrafts like PC12 or Cirrus.
This can also be easily installed in airliners and the Land safe system started by a signal from the ground (eg.Transponder - ADS In and out)
Airbus developed cockpit layouts already with single pilot cockpits, a toilet IN the cockpit so that the pilot does not have to leave it - even with a plug in for the head set and a Com-panel that you can monitor or answer the ATC calls even when you have to use the rest room
The freighters will make the start soon, following by long range aircrafts, where only 2 pilots will be assigned for long range flights - with one pilot in the crew rest during cruise, and only one pilot on duty on the flight deck.
systems will be available easy to prevent that this pilot falls asleep because he have to push a button. every minute (like a train driver) or similar.
It will come for sure and less pilots needed in the future but the demand of airplanes and flights will be increased dramatically within the next 30 years so pilots will also be needed in a high number in the future
_________________
**Happy landings**

[Flerq]

[flapfail]

The airlines want to reduce their costs and the pilots ARE a main factor
Imagine that with one pilot in the cockpit, the costs can be reduced by 50%, on long range by at least 35%
_________________
**Happy landings**

[Flerq]

[E92325]

A pilots costs definetly more than 4$/hr. Maybe 4$/per boarding pass.

But i see the same way you do, there will be other costs that increases and erase those "benefits". Things like developement process, certifying, maintenance etc.

Therefore i think, the toppic single pilot operation is more science fiction than a realistic scenario.

[flapfail]

[Flerq]

[Flerq]

[flapfail]

[Flerq]